Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions

This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the US following their respective economies’ monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999 to May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the US and euro area bond and stock markets are used. A strong upsurge in intraday volatility at the time of the release of the monetary policy decisions by the two central banks is found, which is more pronounced for the US financial markets following Fed monetary policy decisions. Part of the increase in intraday volatility in the two economies surrounding monetary policy decisions can be explained by both news of the level of monetary policy and revisions in the expected future monetary policy path. The observed strong discrepancy between asset price reactions in the US and in the euro area following monetary policy decisions still remains a puzzle, although some tentative explanations are provided in the paper. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G14intraday data, monetary policy

Journal Staff

This handbook describes a framework for development, validation, and integration of multipurpose simulation models. The presented methodology enables reuse of models in different applications with different purposes. The scope is simulation models representing physical environment, physical aircraft systems or subsystems, avionics equipment, and electronic hardware. The methodology has been developed by a small interdisciplinary team, with experience from Modeling and Simulation (M&S) of vehicle systems as well as development of simulators for verification and training. Special care has been taken to ensure usability of the workflow and method descriptions, mainly by means of 1) a user friendly format, easy to overview and update, 2) keeping the amount of text on an appropriate level, and 3) providing relevant examples, templates, and checklists. A simulation model of an aircraft Environmental Control System (ECS) is used as an example to guide the reader through the workflow of developing and validating multipurpose simulation models

A new species of Peckia (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) from Costa Rica : with a note on P. pexata (Wulp)

A new species of Peckia Robineau-Desvoidy is described from the coastal dry forest of Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica, viz., Pechia glyphis sp.n., and a key to the ten species of Peckia known from the area is provided. A lectotype is designated for Pechia pexata (Wulp, 1895) and intraspecific variation in male leg setosity and in the morphology of male terminalia are documented

Gauging the effectiveness of quantitative forward guidance: evidence from three inflation targeters

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the performances of the forward guidance strategies adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank and the Riksbank, with the aim to gauge whether forward guidance via publication of an own interest rate path enhances a central bank’s ability to steer market expectations. Two main results emerge. First, we find evidence that all three central banks have been highly predictable in their monetary policy decisions and that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored in the three economies, irrespective of whether forward guidance involved publication of an own interest rate path or not. Second, for New Zealand, we find weak evidence that a publication of a path could potentially enhance a central bank’s leverage on the medium term structure of interest rates. JEL Classification: E40, E43, E52central bank communication, forward guidance, monetary policy, Term structure of interest rates, transparency

Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?

This paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional predictors such as the term spread, dividend yield, exchange rates and money growth. The study is applied to euro area financial asset prices and real economic growth, covering the period 1973 to 2006. The paper finds that the term spread is the best predictor of future growth in the period leading up to the introduction of Monetary Union. After 1999, however, sectoral stock prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons. JEL Classification: C52, C53asset prices, forecasting models

Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?

This paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional predictors such as the term spread, dividend yield, exchange rates and money growth. The study is applied to euro area financial asset prices and real economic growth, covering the period 1973 to 2006. The paper finds that the term spread is the best predictor of future growth in the period leading up to the introduction of Monetary Union. After 1999, however, sectoral stock prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons.

Income From Separate Property: Towards a Theoretical Foundation

The characterization of the rents, issues and profits from separate property brought into or acquired during marriage is discussed. There has been no comprehensive treatment of this issue in community property case law and literature in recent years

Unintentional Climate Policy: Swedish experiences of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth 1950-2005

This paper examines the development of carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden, especiallyn with a focus on the absolute reductions during the post-war period, during the 1970s and 1980s. The paper shows that the largest reductions were achieved before the introduction of an active climate policy in 1991. This was in turn the result of significant improvements in energy efficiency and energy conversion, while structural changes were considerably less important. One reason behind this decoupling process may be that the active energy policy put pressure on households and industries to conserve energy and to substitute from oil to electricity and biofuels. The process was substantially reinforced by the development of world oil prices in combination with the development of domestic electricity prices, where nuclear power seems to have played an important role.Sweden; climate policy; economic growth; carbon dioxide reduction; carbon tax

Antibody-antigen interactions: What is the required time to equilibrium?

The use of antibodies is widespread in many areas including in-vivo and in-vitro diagnostics, quantitative analysis in research laboratories and as therapeutic substances. Since the methods for generation of antibodies has improved and regularly results in high-affinity interactions, the standard assays used for quantification of the interaction properties should be revisited because they do not necessarily produce accurate results. Here we show that in several cases, the affinity determination of strongly binding antibodies will be inherently difficult when using standard procedures, due to impractically long incubation times. Real-time kinetic analysis is often the only realistic alternative for affinity determination